This report examines possible directions for multilateral policy on autonomous weapon systems (AWS)—weapons capable of selecting and applying force to targets without human intervention. Over a decade of deliberations on AWS has yielded limited progress, with states divided on definitions, regulatory approaches and pathways for action. The resulting landscape is one of institutional complexity, political sensitivity and growing urgency. While the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on lethal AWS—convened under the auspices of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons—remains the predominant forum for discussion and action, new processes and hybrid approaches are gaining traction, demanding a nuanced approach.

The choices made in the coming years will shape not only the governance of AWS, but also the broader trajectory of military artificial intelligence regulation. In 2026, states will decide on the future of efforts to regulate these weapons at the conclusion of the current mandate of the GGE. This report aims to equip policymakers with a structured and realistic overview of possible next steps to assist them to advance multilateral policy efforts.

Table of contents

1. Introduction

2. A history of multilateral policy efforts on AWS

3. Weighing up policy directions

4. Future policy directions

5. Findings and recommendations

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)/EDITORS

Dr Alexander Blanchard is a Senior Researcher in the Governance of Artificial Intelligence Programme at SIPRI.

Netta Goussac is a Senior Researcher in the Governance of Artificial Intelligence Programme at SIPRI.